Vodkapundit - Wargaming: The Final Edition

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Tea Leaves

Via Charlie Martin - Rasmussen Voter Identification: R+6.

As the chart shows, this represents a roughly 13 point swing from November.  If this is accurate (and who knows what is accurate, all the polls are way off and Romney is going to win in a landslide.  For example, CNN's latest poll has the race tied with a D+11 sample.  Rasmussen's own poll is still using a D+2 sample to show Romey up 1.

What does all this mean?  Get out the vote tomorrow.  Those will be the only numbers that matter and this country cannot afford to get them wrong.   

Mittmentum

I have been making calls from home for the Romney Campaign, but thought I would take a break for some lunch and a polling update.

Latest polls from Michigan and Pennsylvania (both states Obama thought he would win easily) both show virtual ties. 

Plus:  A prediction from Charlie Martin:  Romney 341 Obama 197.

Mittmentum

A few days ago, Karl Rove came out with his prediction that Mitt Romney would win the election. 

Yesterday,  Michael Barone did the same, only with a bigger spread.

It seems worth noting that both men also predicted Obama's victory in 2008.

Mittmentum

Gallup: Romney Up 52-45 Among Early Voters; Obama Down 22 Points Compared to 2008 Edge.

Updated: Momentum

Why Romney Will Win.

This helps too.

Update:  Game Over, Man?  To quote the great Glenn Reynolds (who may or may not be quoting someone else), "Don't get cocky, kid."  Remember.  It is still all about who shows up.

Another Endorsement In Another Swing State

The Detroit News Endorses Romney.

Related:  Latest Michigan poll shows a dead heat (Disclaimer:  Poll based on absurdly low response rate)

Mittmentum

Rassmussen:  Romney 50, Obama 46.

Gallup:  Romney 51, Obama 45.

Now, take those numbers for what you will.  Just don't get cocky.  Volunteer, donate, and vote.

Karl Rove: NO CANDIDATE HAS EVER LOST With Numbers Like What Mitt Romney Has Today

Via Gateway Pundit:  Karl Rove told Megyn Kelly today on America Live that no presidential candidate has ever lost an election leading with over 50 percent of likely voters in mid October.
Mitt Romney has 51 percent of likely voters today.

Momentum

There have been a ton of recent polls showing the race's shift to Romney after last week's debate.  Here are but a few highlights:

Rasmussen has Romney up 2 in a poll of eleven swing states, which includes Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

Gallup has Romney up 2 among likely voters.

RCP now even has Romney up 1 in its poll of polls.

Plus:  Vodkapundit is still wargaming the electoral college.

Get the Vote Out

Ohio shocker: GOP closes early voting gap, boosting Romney.

Remember.  It's all comes down to who turns out to vote.

Hat tip to Instapundit for the link.

Barack Obama's Horrible No Good Very Bad Day

A summary of Obama's day yesterday.

Could Republican and Democratic turnout be even this year?

Blatt: 

For the past few weeks, conservatives have been contending that polls giving Obama a substantial margin have done so largely by oversampling Democrats. The most recent CNN poll, for example, favored Democrats by 8 points. In 2008, a year very favorable to the president’s party. Democratic was only 7 points higher than Republican turnout.

This year, most serious pollsters forecast a much narrower Democratic margin. Scott Rasmussen thinks Democrats will likely have a 2-4 point advantage this November. I tend to think it will be loser to 2 points, but sometimes I wonder if Republicans will run even with Democrats, each party’s partisans making up a near identical portion of the electorate.

The last time this happened in a presidential race was 2004 when “Republicans managed to turn out their base at ‘supercharged’ levels.”

I could definitely see it happening, but only if we all do our part to get out the vote.
 

Some Good News

Absentee ballot data not looking good for Democrats.

Plus this helpful reminder: 

As always, this election is going to come down to turnout. We got beat badly on the ground in 2008. As of a couple of weeks ago, our side had already surpassed the number of voter contacts made during all of the 2008 season. We are doing much better, but we could still use more help.

Get. In. Volved. If you do, we will propel Mitt Romney to a victory over Barack Obama in Ohio this year. 

Via Instapundit. 

Why You Shouldn't Buy Into The Negative Polls

It is just another example of the media driving the narrative.

The Stakes Are Too High To Lose, Or Take Anything For Granted

John Hinderaker: 

On paper, given Obama’s record, this election should be a cakewalk for the Republicans. Why isn’t it? I am afraid the answer may be that the country is closer to the point of no return than most of us believed. With over 100 million Americans receiving federal welfare benefits, millions more going on Social Security disability, and many millions on top of that living on entitlement programs–not to mention enormous numbers of public employees–we may have gotten to the point where the government economy is more important, in the short term, than the real economy. My father, the least cynical of men, used to quote a political philosopher to the effect that democracy will work until people figure out they can vote themselves money. I fear that time may have come . . . .

Maybe this anxiety is misplaced. President Obama has never been able to rise above 47% support in the polls, and perhaps when November comes undecided voters will break against the incumbent, as the conventional wisdom has it. Maybe the election won’t be so close after all. We’d all better hope so. Because, given the rate at which Democrats are frantically adding to the dependency state, another four years of Obama may be enough to tip the balance between the private sector and government dependence once and for all.

Read the whole thing and then get active.

A Landslide on the Horizon?

Paul A. Rahe thinks so.

The Good News For Obama: Americans Believe He Is a Transformative President

The bad news?  A majority believes he has changed America for the worse.

You can go ahead and count me among them.

2 Days to Go

And the latest NBC/WSJ poll continues to show that more Americans would be pleased if Obamacare is ruled unconstitutional.

By contrast: a Bloomberg poll found that a majority of liberal law professors believe the mandate is constitutional.

Gallup: Obama Approval Rating at 43%; Down 7 Points in Two Weeks

Allahpundit offers his assessment over at HotAir.