Tuesday, October 2, 2012

Could Republican and Democratic turnout be even this year?

For the past few weeks, conservatives have been contending that polls giving Obama a substantial margin have done so largely by oversampling Democrats. The most recent CNN poll, for example, favored Democrats by 8 points. In 2008, a year very favorable to the president’s party. Democratic was only 7 points higher than Republican turnout.
This year, most serious pollsters forecast a much narrower Democratic margin. Scott Rasmussen thinks Democrats will likely have a 2-4 point advantage this November. I tend to think it will be loser to 2 points, but sometimes I wonder if Republicans will run even with Democrats, each party’s partisans making up a near identical portion of the electorate.
The last time this happened in a presidential race was 2004 when “Republicans managed to turn out their base at ‘supercharged’ levels.”
I could definitely see it happening, but only if we all do our part to get out the vote.

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