For the past few weeks, conservatives have been contending that polls giving Obama a substantial margin have done so largely by oversampling Democrats. The most recent CNN poll, for example, favored Democrats by 8 points. In 2008, a year very favorable to the president’s party. Democratic was only 7 points higher than Republican turnout.
This year, most serious pollsters forecast a much narrower Democratic margin. Scott Rasmussen thinks Democrats will likely have a 2-4 point advantage this November. I tend to think it will be loser to 2 points, but sometimes I wonder if Republicans will run even with Democrats, each party’s partisans making up a near identical portion of the electorate.
The last time this happened in a presidential race was 2004 when “Republicans managed to turn out their base at ‘supercharged’ levels.”I could definitely see it happening, but only if we all do our part to get out the vote.